Archive for the 'Opinion' Category

Citrix: the time has come

Tuesday, October 7th, 2008

I spent some time this morning with Chris Fleck, Citrix’ VP of Solutions Development.  Chris is very focused on mobility, and as we talked, it was clear that our visions of the potential impact of mobility on businesses are well aligned.

One of our conversations centered around how Citrix’ products (XenApp, XenDesktop, etc.) have been demonstratable on smartphones for some time, but not practical.  The devices lacked the processing power, memory, screen resolution, keyboard/usability, and the networks lacked the bandwidth required for a smartphone to actually serve as an extended desktop.  Chris was excited because those barriers have largely gone away.  The time has finally arrived when folks can stop carrying their laptops around and still have complete access to full corporate applications.

Another of our conversations was around how to overcome the physical limitations inherent in the smartphone form factor.  One approach is to use a Bluetooth device like the Redfly.  Chris thinks that the Redfly is finally at the right price point ($199) to drive broad adoption by enterprises, which is great.  But Chris wants to extend it further to what he calls the Nirvana Phone.

I share Chris’ excitement about the pivotal time we’re in when these long-held visions are moving from “nirvana” to reality.  A great and energizing conversation.  Thanks Chris.

Mobilize panel videos now online

Wednesday, September 24th, 2008

The archived streaming videos of the two panels I was on last week are now posted at the Mobilize site.

You can watch them here:

Signals from the Near Future: The Mobile Guru Panel

The Carrier Panel: Strategies to Keep Mobile Data Growing

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Now playing: Billy Bragg - Greetings To The New Brunette (Demo)

Mobile Freedom

Monday, September 22nd, 2008

In addition to the two articles that GigaOm published last week, I also provided a third article for GigaOm’s consideration as lead up to last week’s Mobilize event.  Here it is for your reading pleasure!

Openness is an active topic in the mobile industry. But what does “open” really mean? In a discussion with leading mobile developers, we asked what “open” meant to each of them. As you can guess, each answer was different. But my favorite was “Open means not having to ask permission.”

I’m not sure that definition fits very well with the word “open,” but it does well capture what is desired from openness. I believe the phrase “freedom” better reflects what we are all seeking as we transform the mobile industry.

Mobile customers desire the freedom to access any legal network-based content or application, anywhere and anytime. They want the freedom to make their mobile devices their own – personalized with their style, their content, and their applications. They want the freedom to install new software and new content, without restrictions, on their mobile devices. Mobile customers want the freedom to choose from a wide variety of devices and change from one device to another as the situation warrants.

But mobile freedom is not just the freedom “to” it is also the freedom “from.” Customers desire freedom from surprise bills, freedom from hard to use devices and services, freedom from the challenges of finding interesting content and applications, freedom from being bombarded with irrelevant ads, freedom from their personal information being shared with people they don’t trust, freedom from never-ending lock-in to one network.

Mobile developers also want freedom. Developers desire the freedom to innovate - leveraging the power of mobility to create new value for customers. They want freedom from having to develop for an infinite variety of devices and platforms. They want the freedom to implement the business model that fits their product and market. Mobile developers want the freedom to succeed.

If this is the freedom that is desired, is it the freedom that is being delivered by the mobile industry? If you care enough about this topic to have read this far, I doubt I need to answer that question.

So, why isn’t the industry hopping right to it and delivering mobile freedom? I believe there are two answers, one somewhat philosophical and the other quite practical.

I believe all industries suffer from a similar problem. Since I’ve “grown up” in telecom, I call it “ Big Bell Dogma.” In short, Big Bell Dogma is resistance to change. In large part it is driven by the market power held by incumbents and their fear that change will reduce that power. Each of us, individually, suffers from Big Bell Dogma. We resist change because it brings uncertainty over whether we can continue to be successful. But the greater the power held, the greater the resistance to change. A monopoly mindset is what gives Big Bell Dogma its name.

On a more practical level, the reality is that the mobile industry has an existing, profitable business model that generally delivers the kind of financial results Wall Street expects.

I believe that mobile freedom will drive significant market growth – just as freedom drove tremendous growth in the PC market (with the IBM/Microsoft/Intel standard platform) and in the Internet market (when the web delivered new freedom to end users and developers). I believe that mobile operators who embrace freedom can participate in that market growth and can actually deliver better financial performance (faster growth, better margins) than the current model.

The challenge is in the transition. In a freedom-enabled mobile market, the revenues change. The sources of revenue change and the nature of revenues change. In a freedom-driven business model, the costs change as well. Unfortunately, synchronizing the revenue and cost changes is challenging.

To successfully manage through this transition takes a long series of small steps, each with manageable risk. Sprint’s introduction of the Simply Everything price plan to deliver freedom from surprise bills was a manageable risk. Our introduction of the Titan platform to deliver freedom for developers from fragmented device development was a manageable risk. The list goes on.

Over time, a series of steps can get us to mobile freedom. But wouldn’t it be nice to not have to worry about a transition?

Sprint was blessed with that opportunity in the launch of our WiMax business – Xohm, soon to be part of the new Clearwire. The Xohm business model was built from the ground up to deliver mobile freedom to customers and to third party developers.

It has been very exciting to watch the birthing of a new industry model, and it will be fascinating to watch as mobile freedom grows and matures!

Second Mobility article at GigaOm

Monday, September 22nd, 2008

Last week while I was traveling, the GigaOm team posted my second article “Mobility - What’s Different.”

The article starts by asking “Is mobility a new revolution, or is it just an extension of the previous PC and Internet revolutions? Is anything really different?”  It then uses the Kindle, Dash Express, DriveCam, and CardioNet to help answer the question.

Check it out!

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Now playing: Matthew Perryman Jones - Beneath The Silver Moon

Mobile Broadband article up on GigaOm

Tuesday, September 16th, 2008

Helping set the stage for Mobilize, my thoughts on “Mobile Broadband - A New Revolution?” are up at GigaOm.  Check it out.

Is 2008 the new 1998?

Thursday, August 28th, 2008

I’m scheduled to speak at Mobilize.  Originally the event was structured as a mix of talks and panels and Surj had picked for me a topic along the lines of the title of this post.  Recently, the event has been restructured to be almost entirely panels, so you can expect to see me in a couple of very interesting conversations on the 18th.

But… I’d started collecting my thoughts for what a talk on 2008 vs. 1998 might look like, and instead of throwing it all away, I thought I’d share some of those thoughts here…

If you go back and take a look at what was happening in 1998, you’ll find that there were some pretty interesting IPOs that year.  Of the class of 1998, eBay probably stands out as a prominent survivor, but other initial offerings that year include Broadcast.com, GeoCities, and Inktomi.  Not bad companies, but clearly from a different era than today - what we could probably categorize as “Web 1.0 companies.”

But, the really exciting thing that was happening in 1998 wasn’t inside the browser, it was inside the walls of our homes. 

In December 1997, Covad launched DSL in San Francisco.  By the end of 1998, they were also operating in Los Angeles, Boston, and New York.  Northpoint launched in the Bay area in March 1998.  By the end of the year, in addition to Covad’s 4 cities, they were also in Chicago, San Diego, and Washington, D.C.  Rhythms NetConnections got started a month after Northpoint in San Diego, but they moved fast, operating in 11 markets by year end.

The cable companies were already out there - @Home was operating in 59 markets by the end of 1998 with a whopping 331,000 subscribers.

Where were the telcos?  Still trying to convince everyone that ISDN was what they needed for broadband.  In fact, @Home’s 1998 annual report included this risk: “The regional Bell operating companies (’RBOCs’) and other local exchange carriers have also entered this field and are providing price competitive services. Many of these competitors are offering (or may soon offer) technologies that will compete with some or all of the Company’s high-speed data service offerings. Such technologies include Integrated Services Digital Network (’ISDN’) and Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line (’ADSL’).”

Wow.  Doesn’t that sound like ancient history?

And yet, today it sounds like ancient history because @Home, Covad, Northpoint, and Rhythms Netconnections succeeded in revolutionizing the Internet by introducing always-on broadband connections with non-scary pricing and non-scary implementation.  (They may not have succeeded on other dimensions, but that’s another story.)

Could any of the following be possible today without easy-for-everyone always-on broadband?

  • YouTube
  • Google Maps
  • Flickr
  • Second Life
  • World of Warcraft
  • Facebook/MySpace/Orkut/Cyworld etc.
  • Twitter
  • the list could go on…

The point is that 1998 was a critical turning point for how we interact with our world through the Internet because of the investments being made in key enablers.

And, I believe that 2008 is the same type of critical turning point for how we interact with our world through mobile devices.

There are already some really cool mobile capabilities out there, but I think of them as the equivalent of narrowband applications:

The applications that are possible are constrained by some combination of bandwidth, usability, coverage, pricing, or policies.  And the exciting thing is that, in 2008, these barriers are starting to come down.

Being very provincial for the moment, consider the revolutionary changes introduced just by my own employer, Sprint, in 2008:

As standalone events, these changes are up and down the “excitement scale”, but taken as a whole, they represent change as revolutionary as the broadband Internet revolution. Mobility promises to unleash innovation that leverages the unique personal, context-aware, always-with-you nature of mobility to create compelling value well beyond the Internet as we know it today. 

Where will these advances take us?  No one really knows, but I believe that, while today we see mobility as a poor (limited in bandwidth and form factor) extension of our desktop, in the not so distant future we will see our desktops as a poor (limited contextual relevance) extension of our mobile experience.

What do you see coming?

Psst - Have you Heard about Everything Plus?

Wednesday, July 16th, 2008

By now, I’m sure everyone has heard about Sprint’s groundbreaking Simply Everything plans, but here’s an even better twist!

Everything Plus is Sprint’s new employee referal plan which takes the Simply Everything plans and makes them even better!

For example, the lowest priced Simply Everything plan is $69.99 for 450 Anytime minutes (and of course, unlimited text, web, TV, music, navigation, Direct Connect, etc.).

The equivalent Everything Plus plan is $59.99 for 500 Anytime minutes (and all that unlimited stuff).

There’s also a discounted 1000 minute plan at $79.99 and the unlimited plan at $99.99.

Interested?  Check it out here.  My e-mail address (you’ll need it) is russ.s.mcguire@sprint.com and the 3 digits you’ll need are 383.

How Bill Gates has changed how you work

Friday, June 27th, 2008

Today is Bill Gates’ last day as a full-time Microsoft employee. He’ll continue on as Chairman of the board, but it seems like a good day to reflect on the impact that the PC revolution, Internet revolution, and Mobility revolution have had on our everyday lives.

Back in November 1979, Paul Henson, Chairman of United Telecom (the company that would become Sprint) gave a speech to the Midwest Research Institute. The full speech is available here. Reading through Mr. Henson’s description of the work environment at a telecom company in the late 1970s gives us a pretty striking picture of how dramatically our work has been changed by PCs, the Internet, and Mobility.

Here are a few excerpts:

  • “You all know, and probably utilize, the time-honored practice of dictation with a secretary typing the letter after it has been drafted a couple of times and you have done some editing.”
  • “You may not realize that only 28% of all business calls are completed to the intended person on the first attempt. … We could solve that problem by sending hard copy, instantly, to the desk of somebody you want to communicate with - after you’ve tried your call, of course. If you don’t find your party in or available to talk, hit another button and have the hard copy transmitted. We’re working on it!”
  • “One wonders why in the world American business has tolerated this level of productivity in the white collar sector… I suspect it’s probably because some of those of us who call ourselves managers never thought it appropriate for us to learn how to use a typewriter or a cathode ray tube so that we could correct correspondence, speech drafts, and other hard copy material instead of asking secretaries or assistants to do so.”
  • “What will emerge is the so-called ‘office of the future.’ … It is going to revolutionize the way we do business, the way we communicate with our branch offices and our other business associates. We will be using a typewriter keyboard or reading information displayed on a cathode ray tube instead of dictating and typing those letters and mailing them out in neat little envelopes, wondering if they ever will be delivered!”

The revolution that Chairman Henson predicted is exactly what has happened over the past thirty years. Today, we can’t imagine dictation or typewriters or even cathode ray tubes in our offices. We can’t imagine “sending hardcopy” at a touch of a button as a futuristic concept that is hard to describe. We can’t imagine a world without voice mail (a capability also enabled by computer technology). And yet, it was reality not too long ago.

Why the New Clearwire Makes Sense

Wednesday, May 7th, 2008

Back in July 2007, Sprint announced deals with Google and Clearwire. At the time, I sang the praises of the two agreements. Today, the three companies, together with three cable providers and Intel, announced a much more far-reaching relationship.

The July Clearwire announcement was about network sharing. Sprint would build a 4th generation wireless WiMax network covering part of the country. Clearwire would build a WiMax network covering the rest of the country. And then each company’s customers could roam onto the other’s network when traveling. At the time, I called out the single most significant benefit of the arrangement as: “By splitting the country and agreeing who will build where, capital and time aren’t wasted building networks that compete with each other in popular geographies. The full capital plans of each company can be working together to accelerate and broaden availability faster and farther than either company could achieve on its own.”

Today’s announcement goes even further, merging the WiMax operations of Sprint with Clearwire to create a new independent company, under the Clearwire brand, but 51% owned by Sprint. The benefits I previously called out still hold true: more efficient capital spend, more efficient communication of the value proposition, and a stronger position with technology vendors.

However, the inclusion of the cable companies takes it another step further. As you may recall, a consortium called SpectrumCo, led by Comcast, acquired 137 licenses in the AWS auction back in 2006. Although these cable companies could credibly have built their own network, instead investing in the new Clearwire is a much better way to get what they want with the most efficient use of capital.

For Clearwire and Sprint, of course, the cable companies represent a tremendous sales channel. The wholesale agreements with the cable companies appear to be well suited to integration into convergence bundles that could help rapidly drive broad adoption of WiMax.

Comcast’s CEO, Brian Roberts said “This transaction is attractive to us strategically and financially and puts in place very attractive wholesale relationships for access to Sprint’s existing 3G and Clearwire’s 4G networks, giving us complete flexibility to introduce wireless mobility in terms of product innovation and deployment.”

Similarly, Glenn Britt, Time Warner Cable’s CEO said “”This exciting new venture enables Time Warner Cable to help shape the next generation of wireless services in ways that will complement and enhance our products and services.”

So, best of all worlds, we don’t have mad capital being thrown at building competing networks, instead we have tremendous marketing power being focused to drive utilization scale for an asset intensive business.

But what about Google?

Last July, I noted: “But Sprint’s commitment to open APIs for developers like Google to innovate on top of the Sprint (and Clearwire) networks is even better. We have a sense that increased availability (because products and services are fully useful wherever you go) and contextual relevance (because they will adapt to the context in which you’re using them - where, when, with whom, etc.) is what will drive new value in the Mobility Revolution. But, we can only guess at how that new value will actually be realized. Only by putting this power into the hands of innovators will the full potential of mobility be realized. … Sprint and Google both, in this announcement, are clearly signaling their commitment to enabling the kind of innovation that can truly revolutionize how we interact with the world, how we do our jobs, and how we run our businesses.”

Google seems to agree and has put a sizeable investment behind this belief. On the official Google blog, Larry Adler wrote: “We believe that the new network will provide wireless consumers with real choices for the software applications, content and handsets that they desire. Such freedom will mirror the openness principles underlying the Internet and enable users to get the most out of their wireless broadband experience. As we’ve supported open standards for spectrum and wireless handsets, we’re especially excited that Clearwire intends to build and maintain a network that will embrace important openness features. In particular, the network will: (1) expand advanced high speed wireless Internet access in the U.S., (2) allow consumers to utilize any lawful applications, content and devices without blocking, degrading or impairing Internet traffic and (3) engage in reasonable and competitively-neutral network management.”

The Clearwire deal is well aligned with complementary Sprint announcements over the past couple of days that also drive freedom for users and innovation by third parties.

Today, Google and Sprint also announced partnering on the 3G network that Sprint will continue to own and operate. Kevin Packingham, Sprint’s VP of Product Managment said “Our partnership with Google is a great example of how Sprint is making the mobile Internet experience even more customer-friendly and useful to our customers.” And Doug Garland, Google’s VP of Product Management noted “We both believe in openness and providing compelling, easy-to-use mobile services that consumers can use every day. We look forward to working together to deliver a great experience.”

Sprint also amplified that commitment to freedom (that’s freedom as in “free speech” not “free beer”) at the JavaOne conference this week. Sprint announced, among other things, a relaunch of the Professional Developers’ Program, providing APIs for developers to access GPS, address book, and messaging information.

Bottom line, what does it all mean?

I believe these announcements provide a much more rapid path to a broadband mobile (not just wireless) network that delivers multi-megabit speeds and the openness to innovation that will unleash unimaginable developments. But it also means marketing partners that share the vision and can drive this mobility revolution to the mass market.

And that really makes sense for driving the mobility revolution forward!

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Now playing: Phil Keaggy - Water Day

Big Bell Dogma

Wednesday, May 7th, 2008

Nearly two years ago, I introduced the concept of “Big Bell Dogma” on this blog. I also discussed the concept last year in my book.

Since that time, I’ve found the concept very useful for many purposes, but I’ve never gone back to do a good job of defining what Big Bell Dogma really is or why it matters. Today I plan to fill that gap.

The name “Big Bell Dogma” is a reference to the original “Ma Bell” - AT&T - when they were the nationwide monopoly for telecom services in the United States. (Of course, there were other monopoly telephone companies serving specific cities and regions, including GTE and United Telephone - later renamed Sprint and then Embarq, but none of them had the power or arrogance of Ma Bell.) The “Dogma” piece comes from the attitude of the monster monopolist which played itself out in a series of beliefs that shaped decisions and actions made by the company.

Some good examples come from a few of my favorite books:

Nerds 2.0.1: A Brief History of the Internet by Stephen Segaller was originally a PBS series (which I’ve never seen) but became a book which is a fascinating read if you’re into history, technology, or both. In the book, there are a series of quotes from the men and women behind the original creation of ARPnet (the Internet), including several that describe AT&T’s “Big Bell Dogma.”

Larry Roberts: “I gave speeches about this in the 1967-to-1969 timeframe…Defense Communications Agency; AT&T; and the other people around had all these engineers who actually booed and hissed… ‘Everything would go wrong, and it couldn’t possibly work.’ … AT&T and DCA laughed at me. In fact, they more than laughed. They actually were very nasty. I felt like people were throwing rotten eggs at me when I was giving speeches as we were preparing for this, because they basically thought we were crazy.”

Dave Walden: “The telephone companies seemed to me to be working pretty hard to discredit packet switching. They would go give speeches. They’d talk to their customers and say this isn’t a good idea. It can’t be. The telephony attitude is not very compatible with packet switching… the telephony attitude is about guaranteed levels of service and capacity. It’s about investments that you make that you get back over decades.”

Len Kleinrock: “I would say, ‘Please give us good data communications,’ and they would reply, ‘The United States is a copper mine - we have phone lines everywhere so use the telephone network.’ I would counter, ‘But you don’t understand, it takes twenty-five seconds to set up a call, you charge me for a minimum three minutes, and all I want is to send a millisecond of data.’ Their reply was, ‘Go away, children, the revenue stream from data transmission is dwarfed by that of our voice traffic.’ So the children went away and created the Internet!”

Bob Taylor: “When I asked AT&T to participate in the ARPAnet, they assured me that packet switching wouldn’t work. So that didn’t go very far.”

Another great technology history book is Wireless Nation: The Frenzied Launch of the Cellular Revolution in America by James B. Murray, Jr.

In it, the author describes AT&T’s behavior when the first cellular spectrum licenses were distributed by the FCC: “On June 8, the day following the Round I filings, AT&T and GTE announced that they and the rest of the wireline applicants had agreed to split ownership of the top thirty markets. The two wireline heavyweights had successfully intimidated scores of smaller independent telephone companies, convincing them that they could never assemble the capital or expertise needed to launch these new cell phone businesses. If the small companies would just stand aside, AT&T and GTE declared, they would graciously condescend to share minority interests in the contested markets. But AT&T and GTE would, of course, be in charge - and they would bill their minority partners for the service.”

A third fascinating read is End of the Line: The Rise and Fall of AT&T by Leslie Cauley.

A small part of the AT&T story is how, at the breakup of AT&T and the formation of the seven “baby bells,” AT&T gave away the nationwide cellular licenses described above. Cauley describes it this way: “They also got AT&T’s operational licenses for a brand-new service that appeared to have no future. …That cache of operational licenses? They were wireless licenses. … At the time nobody expected wireless to amount to much. AT&T’s own internal studies had concluded that the wireless market might attract 1 million users, at most. So when a young attorney named John Zeglis urged Brown to give the licenses to the Bells as a consolation prize, he didn’t hesitate.”

However, Big Bell Dogma isn’t just about how Ma Bell historically acted. In fact, a more accurate name might be Incumbent Intransigence, but Big Bell Dogma sounds so much better!

Big Bell Dogma stems from the power that comes from incumbency. Any person or organization creates power over time. For companies, this power comes from their market position, their relationships with customers, their brand, their physical assets, etc. For individuals, this power comes from knowledge and experience, and from relationships with others that enable them to be successful doing their jobs.

The net result is that, over time, any new idea or change becomes a threat to this power.

Think about your own job, assuming you’re currently successful. If tomorrow your boss came to you and said “I’m transferring you to a new group to do a new job that you’ve never done before working with people you don’t know,” your confidence in your ability to succeed undoubtedly would be challenged and you’d immediately want to do whatever you could to stay where you are doing what you’re doing (and maybe get a promotion that incrementally adds to the scope of your current success).

The same holds true for companies.

And the more entrenched an incumbent is, the less flexible they become, the less open they are to new ways of doing things, and the more aggressively they attack anyone who tries to introduce new ideas into the marketplace.

It’s easy to point at Sprint’s two largest competitors, who happen to still be “Big Bells” and tag them with the BBD tag, but I recognize that anyone who has any incumbency at all suffers to some degree from this malady. I try to spot the symptoms in my own behavior and self-correct before I kill a really good idea.

So, what are the symptoms? The attitudes that, to me, are symptomatic of Big Bell Dogma include:

  • Change is risky. Status quo is safe.
    Status quo protects the stability of networks and systems. It also protects the power of incumbents.
  • Flexibility is risky. Rigidity is safe.
    Flexibility introduces uncertainty which threatens the performance of the networks and systems. It also threatens well understood and steady cash flows.
  • Distributed control is risky. Centralized control is safe.
    Centralized control ensures that nothing happens without an understanding of the impacts on all aspects of the system and without the ability to “roll back” to the previous stable state. It also ensures that incumbents are in control and determine which changes are in their best interest.

Can you spot these attitudes in your own behaviors? Are you willing to drive them out?

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Now playing: Greg Adkins - On The Edge