2008 Predictions

A year ago I took my first crack at predicting the coming year in mobility.? It seemed so easy back then and seems so hard heading into 2008, but I’ll take my best shot and hope I can best my 70% score from last year.? As always, these predictions do not reflect any non-public information that I have as part of my job, so don’t try to read anything into this other than Russ’ guesses and hopes for the coming year.? My focus is on the U.S., so I apologize in advance to my more globally-minded readers.

In searching for ten things that might actually be meaningful and possible over the next 12 months, I applied some structure that I thought was worth representing as I shared this list, thus the category headers:

Industry

  1. A top 4 mobile operator (Verizon, AT&T, Sprint, T-Mobile) will launch a disruptive offer that causes others to react.
  2. One of the 7 best known mobile operators (VZ,T,S,T-Mo, Alltel, Leap, MetroPCS) will be acquired or merged into another company.

    Regulatory/Technology

  3. At least one non-traditional player will be a 700MHz winner.
  4. Mobile WiMax launches will generate meaningful critical and popular success.

    Consumer Adoption

  5. The inital launch of Android-based phones will generate iPhone-like mania.
  6. However, by the end of 2008, less than 1 million Android-based phones will have been sold in the U.S.

    Business Adoption

  7. Enterprise customers and IT vendors (e.g. systems integrators) will embrace mobile Linux (including Android).
  8. Businesses will significantly increase adoption of line-of-business mobile applications

    Personal

  9. Law of Mobility blog traffic will double December 2008 over December 2007.
  10. Total sales of The Power of Mobility will reach 20,000 by year end 2008.

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